OHA Releases Updated Modeling Report

Posted on June 12, 2020

June 12, 2020

Today, Oregon Health Authority released its updated modeling report, showing the projections for the COVID-19 progression in Oregon. With limited data since reopening, counties being reopened at different times and recent increases in cases, the report provides three different scenarios. In all scenarios, however, recent data and model calibration show transmission has increased since reopening began on May 15.

  • The most optimistic scenario the model assumes a 10-percentage point increase in transmission after re-opening on May 15. It shows the number of new infections per day would remain relatively stable over the next month.
  • The less optimistic scenario the model assumes a slightly larger increase in transmission (15 percentage points) after May 15, which fit the recent observed hospitalization and diagnoses trends better. It shows the number of new infections per day will gradually increase over the next month (approximately 170 additional new infections per day).
  • The most pessimistic scenario the model assumes a 15 percentage point increase in transmission after May 15 plus an additional 10 percentage point increase in transmission after May 25. Under this scenario, the number of new infections per day will increase more dramatically. Compared to the most optimistic scenario, this model projects about 14,000 more cumulative infections, 925 more new infections per day, and 17 more new severe cases per day by July 3.

OHA uses this modeling for data analysis and planning purposes and releases it on a bi-weekly basis.


Stay informed about COVID-19:

Oregon response: The Oregon Health Authority leads the state response.

United States response: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leads the U.S. response.

Global response: The World Health Organization guides the global response.

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