Updated Modeling Report Shows Flattened Curve

Posted on April 24, 2020

Oregon Health Authority released a modeling report update today that indicates the efforts of Oregonians to stay home and practice physical distancing has helped prevent as many as 70,000 COVID-19 cases in Oregon.

“The epidemic would have continued to grow exponentially, doubling every week,” the report states. “By April 16th, the number of cumulative infections would have been about 80,000, including 2,000 hospitalizations. Hence, the interventions are estimated to have averted over 70,000 infections, including over 1,500 hospitalizations (450 instead of 2,000), by April 16th.”

“Our modeling continues to show that our collective efforts are working,” said Dean Sidelinger, MD, state epidemiologist. “And despite the very real hardships these sacrifices have cost Oregonians, we have to keep it up even as we move toward easing restrictions. We need to build on our success in limiting the spread of COVID-19.”

OHA has worked with the Institute for Disease Modeling on the weekly reports, which use Oregon outbreak data with IDM research and modeling techniques to present policy makers with projections for the trajectory of the disease. The models are updated weekly.

Stay informed about COVID-19:

Oregon response: The Oregon Health Authority and Oregon Office of Emergency Management lead the state response.
United States response: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leads the U.S. response.
Global response: The World Health Organization guides the global response.

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