New Modeling Report Shows Slowing Spread of COVID 19 in Oregon

Posted on August 7, 2020

Today Oregon Health Authority released new modeling about the spread of COVID-19 in Oregon.

The model includes three future scenarios: one in which transmission continues at the current rate, one in which transmission decreases by 10 percent and one in which transmission increases by 10 percent.

The model projects that:

  • If transmission continues at the current level during the next month, the estimated number of new daily infections will remain steady over the next four weeks at approximately 1,000 per day, and the number of daily new severe cases will increase slightly from 17 to 19.
  • If transmission decreases by 10 percent and continues at that level during the next month, the model projects approximately 300 new infections per day and 9 new severe cases per day by Aug. 27.
  • If transmission increases by 10 percent and continues at that level during the next month, the model projects approximately 2,300 new infections per day and 32 new severe cases per day by Aug. 27.

The results suggest that transmission increased substantially during May, then decreased somewhat in late June and early July. The model estimates the Re is currently about 1.0.

Despite the apparent leveling of transmission, the virus continues to spread in Oregon and continues to cause loss of life. OHA urges Oregonians to continue to wear face coverings, practice physical distancing, avoid large gatherings, and wash hands frequently.

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